INDIA’S STRATEGIC BALANCING ACT TO COUNTER CHINESE GROWING INFLUENCE

The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue colloquially known as the QUAD came into being first when the four nations, the US, India, Japan, and Australia met for the first time in 2007 on the side-lines of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). Though the Quad came into being in 2007 but its revival can be attributed to the events in the period between 2012-2020 where each Quad member experienced Chinese aggression. China jeopardized security by refusing to respect internationally accepted maritime rules, challenging rules-based orders, claiming lands and islands, building artificial islands, and becoming a threat to peace in the Indo-Pacific. The Quad alliance had its roots in the fact that all four nations are democratic nations with common maritime interests for trade and commerce in the region. The alliance now holds regular meetings, semi-regular summits, information exchanges and military drills of all the member countries. The alliance also offer financial help to nations with debt in the IndoPacific region and are committed to their overall development.

Interests of the US. The Indo-Pacific spans two oceans and several continents, making it important to U.S. maritime interests. Almost 40 percent of Global trade is routed through here and has its origin or exit in the region. Recognising that peace and security in the maritime domain underpins the development and prosperity of the Indo-Pacific, the US finds working closely with its strategic treaty allies Australia and Japan and growing important strategic partner India as natural for secure Indo - Pacific. The Chinese assertions to challenge the US led regional status quo, tensions over their trade imbalance, its pursuit of regional interests in South China Sea and keeping the Taiwan under constant threat of aggression binds US to initiate actions to contain China and its growing clout in the region.

Japan’s interests. Former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was a strong believer in the Quad’s power to ensure a “free and open IndoPacific.” Japan depends heavily on open sea lanes for its trade with the world and has been pioneer in supporting investment in manufacturing, trade, and infrastructure development across the region. Japan has been always wary of Chinese military build-up and assertion of its sovereignty in the South China Sea, as well as provocations toward Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea. Japan has its focus on to offer alternative sources of assistance in field of electronics and infrastructure to overcome Chinese dominance and conditionalities put in trade for the countries of Indo Pacific.

Australia’s Interests. Over a decade or so there has been sort of “freeze of relations” between Australia and China, mainly because Australia has been actively challenging Chinese coercive behavior and actions that threaten the existing world order. Australian demand for an independent inquiry into origins of COVID -19 has further dipped the bilateral relations. Australia is economically vulnerable to Chinese aggression as China has been its major trading partner and has huge number of Chinese students studying and tourists visiting Australia. From an Australian perspective, in the post-COVID world, the need to reconstruct supply chains and preserve the rules-based international order is high; the ties between the Quad nations must continue to strengthen.

India’s Interest. The lingering border issue which saw fierce clashes at Doklam and Galwan in Ladakh region and later the incursions in Tawang in Arunachal in last three years have just been part of Chinese aggressive gestures against India. India has stood its ground by an giving an equally blunt reply and strengthening its ties further with the QUAD countries. India’s growing friendship with the QUAD and its increased activities in South China Sea has not augured well with China. Through the Quad, India can counterbalance China’s growing presence in the IndoPacific region, including its BRI (Belt and Road Initiative) where Chinese are trying to encircle India by building port facilities in its neighbourhood. The Quad opens Indian opportunities in the field of information sharing, defence ties, and it has the potential to boost its pharmaceutical prowess in the post-pandemic world.

However, the Quad getting reduced to an anti-China grouping has some inherent dangers for India as it triggers the possibility of reactivating tensions with China on different fronts, and it will undermine India’s involvement in other organisations like BRICS and SCO where both India and China are important members. India’s involvement in the Quad could also risk alienating two important Indian allies, Iran, and Myanmar being targets of other three members.

The China Version. China criticises the Quad as it sees it as a mechanism to contain its global rise and accuses the group of being dedicated to undermining its interests. The regular Joint Exercises by all four navies of the quad, U.S. President Joe Biden’s virtual Quad meeting of all Heads of Quad states on COVID-19 vaccines, climate change, and technological innovation and supply-chain resilience has further irked Chinese and its relations with each of the Quad members have become more tense during the pandemic and continues so even in post Pandemic period. The Chinese have also been critical of outcome of the recent quad Foreign Ministers meet and will be keenly observing the Jul 2023 summit of the Quad Heads of Sates.

Current Status. The joint communique of Quad Foreign Ministers Meet, in Delhi early this month clearly remains guided by Pacific priorities of climate change, resilient infrastructure and maritime security. The quad members also reaffirmed consistent and unwavering support for ASEAN centrality and unity. The Quad leaders also focussed on deepening engagement with regional partners, including through information-sharing, capacity-building and technical assistance. “ The world may be focused on the Ukraine crisis, the message from the Quad summit to be held in Sydney in Jul 2023 is likely to be loud and clear the Indo-Pacific continues to be the focal point of global attention and the Quad remains committed supporting development of Pacific Island countries and will continue to fight Chinese assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific region.

THE VIEWS EXPRESSED BY THE AUTHOR ARE PERSONAL

COL RAJESH BHUKAR The author is a Post Graduate in International Studies, Alumni of Defense Services Staff College, Wellington and College of Combat, Mhow [email protected]